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#amiais25

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Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>Why epidemics are harder to forecast than the weather? (Jeff Shaman has a good graphic)</p><p>- uncertainty only exists in the future for weather</p><p>- uncertainty is in both the past *and* futre for epidemiology</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>Common Approaches to Epidemic Forecasting:</p><p>- Mechanistic Approaches (you're painting a picture, telling a story)<br>-- compartmental models (e.g., S-I-R, S-E-I-R-S)<br>-- agent-based models (individual-level simulation)</p><p>- Non-Mechanistic (no story)<br>-- statistical/machine learning, e.g., SARIMA</p><p>- Semi-Mechanistic: data assimilation</p><p>- Wisdowm-of-the-Crowds: aggregated human judgement</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>French group in the 2000's was first to post flu forecasts in real time. (Commentary: wow, that seems so recent.)</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>Weather forecasting took about 160 years to get as "good" as we are at it now.</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>What kind of epidemics are forecastable?<br>- one of a kind events? No. Too rare to meaningfully evaluate.<br>- Across seasons? Eventually but not the focus of speakers work.<br>- Within season or short term? Yes.</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote:</p><p>Why don't we have local health/epidemic forecasts exactly like local weather reports?</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p>Keynote Intro:</p><p>AI Themes in submission - implementation, evaluation, maturity, ethics</p><p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/IS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>IS25</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/InformaticsSummit2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>InformaticsSummit2025</span></a></p>
Paul M. Heider<p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> Keynote Intro: "Given the current policy shifts, we're being disrupted."</p>
Paul M. Heider<p>I'm at the Opening Keynote for <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AmiaInformaticsSummit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AmiaInformaticsSummit</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIA2025" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIA2025</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AMIAIS25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>AMIAIS25</span></a> in Pittsburgh.</p>
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