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#birdflubegins

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sport of sacred spherical cows<p>Strangely reassured by statistic that over two in five Usians don't believe our SARS pandemic is over.</p><p>Strangely reassured by statistic that two in five Usians recognize that life will never get "back to normal".</p><p>Less reassured that near three in ten Usians believe they haven't been infected. Nowhere near that many are taking precautions, so belief is just that.</p><p>Still less reassured that none of these statistics in any way reflect preparedness for our pending H5N1 pandemic.</p><p><a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/CovidIsNotOver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CovidIsNotOver</span></a> <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/BirdFluBegins" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BirdFluBegins</span></a></p>
sport of sacred spherical cows<p>Genotype map of HPAI <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/H5N1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>H5N1</span></a>, via GISAID.</p><p>"Showing 137 of 137 genomes collected between Dec 2020 and Feb 2025, last updated 2025-02-23"</p><p>To be clear, GISAID originally stood for "Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data".</p><p>Also, as a reminder, there was a different Usian president in office for the period from late January 2021 to early Jan 2025.</p><p>Took four years for the global initiative for sharing avian influenza data to collect 137 North American <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/BirdFlu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BirdFlu</span></a> samples, include dairy cow, avian, human, guineafowl, other mammals, chicken and pheasant.</p><p>By comparison, <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/CDC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CDC</span></a> has tested ~136,000 specimens (about 800 of those humans). Sounds like a lot, right?</p><p>That's across 166 Million affected poultry and near a thousand dairy herds. (Current cattle herd numbers reflect anywhere from 1 to 30 cases in three states.)</p><p>Pathetic.</p><p>Without sequence data, there's no way to reliably track evolution of the virus. Statistical samples don't work from happenstance.</p><p><a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/BirdFluBegins" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BirdFluBegins</span></a> <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/PublicHealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PublicHealth</span></a></p>
sport of sacred spherical cows<p>To put recent news—of <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/influenza" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>influenza</span></a> deaths exceeding <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/covid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>covid</span></a> deaths—in context, <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/CDC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CDC</span></a> now has preliminary <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/flu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>flu</span></a> burden estimates for season ended Sept 2024.</p><p><a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/PublicHealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PublicHealth</span></a> surveillance systems have never been adequate for tracking flu, so CDC uses models to arrive at estimates.</p><p>By comparison, covid mortality reflects actual deaths reported as due to covid. There's no comparable covid burden modeling being done, so covid deaths believed misreported—as "natural causes" or otherwise—don't show up in this figure.</p><p>End of last flu season, annualized covid mortality was more than double estimated influenza burden deaths.</p><p>Covid death reporting began sharp deceleration in December, after spike in July/August. Such drop-off in reporting must be taken into account when comparing mortality stats.</p><p>Won't likely see flu burden estimates for this new season until early next year. But we know non-<a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/BirdFlu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BirdFlu</span></a> flu is stressing hospitals, and <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/H5N1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>H5N1</span></a> cases have gone unrecognized.</p><p><a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/CovidIsNotOver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CovidIsNotOver</span></a> <a href="https://hcommons.social/tags/BirdFluBegins" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BirdFluBegins</span></a></p>
Replied in thread

Of course, outdoor cats also kill and eat wild birds, or else bring them home as gifts, so there could be a more direct line of transmission.

But for the variants specifically adapted to mammals, escape by way of mammalian carriers—interfacing with concentrated industrial bioreactor facilities—is still gonna be part of this.

Continued thread

They caught this case, even if it did get immediately redacted from public record.

But not everyone who gets bird flu is gonna recognize it as bird flu. If it comes to them through a chain of transmission from farms to feral cats to outdoor cats, an entire household might come down with a nasty "flu".

If it doesn't hospitalize any of them immediately, no one will think anything of it—because their suburban or exurban community ain't in farm country. Kids get pink eye all the time.

So they'll walk around, relying on OTC remedies, spreading it to neighbors and co-workers and schoolmates and fellow shoppers in the drug store aisle.

And only when hospitals—already short on staff—see it in E/Rs and wards, as more vulnerable neighbors start dropping, will there be actual patients to swab and sequence.

And again, we knew about this April of last year! The redactions in February of 2025 are what they are, but we knew about this during the prior administration!

Same #CDC.

Continued thread

Oh, me?

Just sitting here, wondering how much GISAID data for the U.S. there will be from late January forward. (Raj's dashboard last shows data through the 17th.)

Aware that #CDC long ago would have preferred to stop publishing #covid variants estimates, am expecting to not see same updated this Friday.

They stopped publishing all other related data long before now, and still weren't publishing anything useful wrt #BirdFlu, as of close of last administration.

So now we wait to see how much compliance in advance impacts academic researchers submitting data to a global non-profit. (Let alone how much of U.S. GISAID data may be typically provided by gov't researchers.)

Yes, GISAID was founded in opposition to WHO's proprietary data practices. But also, GISAID's public domain ethos is close enough in spirit to F/OSS that it might just as readily be a target of isolationist fervor.

So, it's wait in see.

"As an avian influenza virus (AIV) panzootic is underway, the threat of a human pandemic is emerging. Infections among mammalian species in frequent contact with humans should be closely monitored. One mammalian family, the Felidae, is of particular concern. Domestic cats are susceptible to AIV infection and provide a potential pathway for zoonotic spillover to humans. Here, we provide a systematic review of the scientific literature to describe the epidemiology and global distribution of AIV infections in felines reported from 2004 – 2024."

medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/20

HT Daniele Focosi on X

medRxiv · Avian Influenza Virus Infections in Felines: A Systematic Review of Two Decades of LiteratureAs an avian influenza virus (AIV) panzootic is underway, the threat of a human pandemic is emerging. Infections among mammalian species in frequent contact with humans should be closely monitored. One mammalian family, the Felidae, is of particular concern. Domestic cats are susceptible to AIV infection and provide a potential pathway for zoonotic spillover to humans. Here, we provide a systematic review of the scientific literature to describe the epidemiology and global distribution of AIV infections in felines reported from 2004 – 2024. We identified 607 AIV infections in felines, including 302 associated deaths, comprising 18 countries and 12 felid species. We observed a drastic flux in the number of AIV infections among domestic cats in 2023 and 2024, commensurate with the emergence of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b. We estimate that this phenomenon is underreported in the scientific literature and argue that increased surveillance among domestic cats is urgently needed. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We acknowledge the support of the University of Maryland Baltimore, Institute for Clinical & Translational Research (ICTR) and the University of Maryland Strategic Partnership: MPowering the State (MPower) to KKC, as well as discretionary funding from the University of Maryland School of Public Health, Department of Global, Environmental, and Occupational Health to KKC. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors.

"#H5N1, a disease typically only found in wild birds, has been killed seals and sea lions in the tens of thousands. Dairy cattle have been seeing lying dead in the sun in California. AND we know that the strain this person was infected with was the same strain as the teenager hospitalized in British Columbia— and that one has the gene necessary for human to human transmission. Even so, the rhetoric of the CBS newscast sampled here said the danger to the general public is very low. I would laugh if this wasn’t such a disaster."

instagram.com/reel/DDx0V3HvmYb

Instagramismatu on Instagram: "H5N1, a disease typically only found in wild birds, has been killed seals and sea lions in the tens of thousands. Dairy cattle have been seeing lying dead in the sun in California. AND we know that the strain this person was infected with was the same strain as the teenager hospitalized in British Columbia— and that one has the gene necessary for human to human transmission. Even so, the rhetoric of the CBS newscast sampled here said the danger to the general public is very low. I would laugh if this wasn’t such a disaster. Now? NOW it’s severe?"26K likes, 346 comments - ismatu.gwendolyn on December 19, 2024: "H5N1, a disease typically only found in wild birds, has been killed seals and sea lions in the tens of thousands. Dairy cattle have been seeing lying dead in the sun in California. AND we know that the strain this person was infected with was the same strain as the teenager hospitalized in British Columbia— and that one has the gene necessary for human to human transmission. Even so, the rhetoric of the CBS newscast sampled here said the danger to the general public is very low. I would laugh if this wasn’t such a disaster. Now? NOW it’s severe?".

If the world suffers a #BirdFlu pandemic in the years immediately following this coming #Jan20...

Please remember that the previous administration had more than enough opportunities to address the #H5N1 threat on the horizon, long before even the absurdly drawn-out U.S. electoneering cycle began.

Usian partisans will want ya'll to blame global mortality of a pandemic in the second half of this decade on the person then in office...

Rather than on the naked emperor, who ensured that there be no serious interventions to stop spread and mutation in U.S. livestock—lest attention to such distract from boasting about ending a pandemic, from the first half of this decade, that still has yet to end.

Nero doesn't get to blame Galba, just because the second conflagration was slow to start.