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#bondmarket

9 posts7 participants0 posts today
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ˈdälfən™🐬 💥 🌊

The US could have a funding problem because of Trump’s actions—

~ The government relies on investors purchasing debt securities to finance its activity — and there's around $3 trillion in US Treasury debt set to mature this year that will need to be refinanced ⬅️

#USA #USGov #bonds #BondMarket #USTreasuries #USpol #USeconomy #USTreasuryYields #finance #tariffs #TradeWar

~ The bond market went haywire this week. Here's why that's a warning for the #US and #Trump. ~

businessinsider.com/bond-yield

Business Insider · Bond yields going haywire is a warning for Trump and the USBy Jennifer Sor
Replied in thread
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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

@GhostOnTheHalfShell the explanation i've settled on for myself about the various japanese carry trades is pretty simple:

1. ever since the 1989 crash Bank of Japan has loaned out money at insanely low rates (0% or even negative sometimes IIRC)

2. people like to borrow money from bank of japan and invest it in other stuff (like US treasuries) and pick up a small rate of return (e.g. if a japanese bank is charging 0.5% and treasuries pay 2% you can make 1.5% "for free")

3. because the rate of return is low people juice their returns by levering the fuck up and borrowing $50 for every $1 they're actually putting in

4. this amount of leverage means that even small movements in the value of the asset (e.g. US treasuries) blows people up (e.g. at 50x leverage a 2% move is death)

the specifics of each carry trade are hard to follow but BOJ has been regarded as a ticking time bomb for a long time now

#BondMarket#economics#economy
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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

someone¹ is furiously dumping US treasuries (AKA "US debt" AKA "the most secure store of value on earth") on the open market, driving interest rates 🚀🌖 and freaking everyone on fintwit the fuck out (interest rates, which go up in response to selling pressure, don't usually move this fast, especially at this time of day).

Worth mentioning that #ScottBessent said that the goal Trump’s 5D chess move w/#tariffs was to drive the rate on the 10 yr treasuries *down* to make it easier for Americans to afford houses etc. Needles to say, up is the opposite of down.

"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market so I can scare the shit out of everybody."

- James Carville

¹ maybe China [edit] or a japanese bank that just blew up on a massive treasury position (TBD).

chart showing interest rates on the 10 year US treasury bill up 5% to 4.5094%/yr in the last few hours
Spencer Hakimian & o - .~ @SpencerHakimian *JAPAN MOF, BOJ, FSA TO HOLD MEETING AT 4PM JST Yeah somebody in Japan got fucking blown out. No reason to be saying this otherwise. 1:03 AM - Apr 9, 2025 - 137.8K Views
#bonds#uspol#eupol
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Bibliolater 📚 📜 🖋

🔴 :youtube: **Why governments are 'addicted' to debt. FT Film**

“_This film examines what some are calling the biggest issue in global finance today, the role of the 'bond vigilantes', and whether government borrowing could spiral out of control._”

#Video length: twenty-nine minutes and fifty-nine seconds.

🔗 youtube.com/watch?v=n1jhoU9Mp_

#FT #FinancialTimes #Film #Markets #Debt #Borrowing #Bonds #Trading #Investment #Finance #BondVigilantes #BondMarket #Economics @economics @finance

YouTubeWhy governments are 'addicted' to debt | FT FilmBy Financial Times
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Emeritus Prof Christopher May

Hmmm... the UK Parliament's Public Accounts Committee is concerned that over the last decade or so the #Treasury has not been forthright enough in its #bondmarket dealings to ensure the UK's public debt is issued at the cheapest rate(s) possible...

in other words, the PAC suspect buyers of public debt have been rigging the market to increase the yield (and this cost of the public debt to the state).

With public finances strained & high levels of debt, this is more than just a technical issue!

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Emeritus Prof Christopher May

@sjwrenlewis explores what the fiscal 'golden rule' might indicate about future Labour Party actions in light of #RachelReeves' commitment to 'fiscal probity';

He offers two angles of critique: one from #MMT & one from an account of #bondmarket attitudes (drawing a lesson from the #LizTruss mini-budget's impact).

But most interesting point:
The UK's governments should stop obsessing about #publicdebt & should switch attention to the UK's 'net worth' to drive decisions!

mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2023/

mainlymacro.blogspot.comChallenges to the strong golden rule: MMT and bond market paranoia  The idea that responsible fiscal policy involves matching plans for future taxes to projected day to day government spending, often called...
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Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

How #bonds ate the entire #financialsystem
A very short, wild history of market that will shape next #financialcrisis
Bonds have played an integral role in development of human society, from subsistence farming to modern era, funding everything from wars and railways to Tesla and Netflix. "The #bondmarket is the most important market in the world," says Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater. "It is the backbone of all other markets."
ft.com/content/5631cc22-a04d-4

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