Gusts, chill, / headwinds swirl.
Dangerous Patterns
Michelle DeRose
#Poetry #MichelleDeRose #Weather #Forecasting #Meteorology
https://oneartpoetry.com/2025/03/30/dangerous-patterns-by-michelle-derose/
@ChrisMayLA6
#Forecasting (economics) is fraught with inaccuracies (as they must be in an irrational world) and yet, it is a vital task in setting #budgets, an ungrateful task. The problem lies not with the frail forecasts but with the decisions based on over optimistic outcomes and a desire to achieve, politically speaking, what few other govt have.
I relate it to #project management planning phases with spend lines and timings - very few (if any at all depending on the sector concerned) live up to their painstakingly put together Gantt charts.
And therein lies the lessons that govts seem clueless about.
Fired #climate scientist Tom Di Liberto says lives are at risk from #extremeweather as more cuts loom over the U.S. government agency responsible for #forecasting and much more. Di Liberto lost his job as part of a massive purge by the Trump administration, and worries the layoffs will not only cost the U.S. more money, but will cripple weather forecasting across the continent, leaving many people vulnerable to #NaturalHazards
What On Earth with Laura Lynch - https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-429-what-on-earth/clip/16134160-trump-slashing-jobs-noaa.-what-wrong
DOGE moves to cancel #NOAA leases on key weather buildings
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump
"One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national #weather forecasts.
It was designed to integrate multiple #forecasting centers in one building to improve operating #efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather #data & forecasts across the #US & abroad...
Elon Musk's #DOGE has been working through the #GSA to cancel #government leases"
Axios: DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings
"...two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.
Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts. ..."
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump
When people first started joining the Fediverse in large numbers, a lot of them asked "Where are the weather accounts?"
If you're one of those people, please check out the FediMeteo project at:
It has weather forecast accounts for cities and towns across almost all of Europe and North America, plus Australia, New Zealand and Japan.
To follow an account, click on a town or city, then copy-paste its address into the search box in Mastodon etc.
About 100 #meteorologists around the U.S. are saying goodbye after getting #fired. Patrece Dayton and Kevin Orpurt were among the dozens of meteorologists saying farewell to viewers. The TV stations affected are owned by #billionaire Byron Allen, who also owns The #WeatherChannel. In a statement, Allen's TV group says weather #forecasting at the local station level is being taken over by The Weather Channel. https://www.yahoo.com/news/local-tv-meteorologists-bid-farewell-223704794.html #weather #climatecrisis #environment #disasters #wildfires
I am starting an email newsletter about time series analysis and forecasting. It is still WIP, but you can subscribe here:
https://the-forecaster.beehiiv.com/subscribe
Local TV meteorologists cut in Huntsville, 22 stations nationally
https://thedesk.net/2025/01/allen-media-laying-off-tv-forecasters/
It’s not unusual, they said, to meet people who misunderstand what they do. For one thing, they don’t work in TV.
“I do notice that when people ask me what I do, and I tell them I’m a meteorologist, they immediately want to know, like, what channel or am I on the radio. And this kind of operational forecaster job kind of runs under the radar,” said meteorologist Jessica Storm, 26.
https://vtdigger.org/2024/12/30/behind-the-scenes-at-burlingtons-national-weather-service-office-home-to-vermonts-spokespeople-for-the-skies/
Potential API Gridded Forecast Data Outage from December 22, 2024 through January 1, 2025
National Weather Service Headquarters | November 25, 2024
The Office of Dissemination (DIS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO) continue to work on fixing a critical bug that disrupts the dissemination of gridded forecast data via the NWS Application Programming Interface (API) near the end of the calendar year. ... it is becoming more likely that the outage will occur. In the event that the bug fix cannot be implemented before December 22, technicians will disable the API...
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/pns24-66_potential_api_outage_aaa.pdf
#wx #ncep #forecasting
Working on a grant application to help us do things like fix our frontend/fix our security/eat food, and thinking about society if we had free and open-source #forecasting easily available to help everyone make better decisions with more information
This month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 
https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes
New paper on "Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action" by a group of folks from the Ecological Forecasting Initiative led by Mike Dietze w/me @skmorgane @cboettig @WaterPotential @Lrjohnson0 and lots of other (non-mastodon) folks.
Hey! Please have a look at my lecture slides on 𝘉𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘝𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘈𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 with a forecasting application of the material implemented using my 𝗥 package 𝗯𝘀𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝘀! 
https://bsvars.github.io/2024-10-be24-bsvarSIGNs
No sign restrictions are involved here! Just the VAR model with hierarchical prior and Bayesian forecasting. Juicy! 
Are reflective thinkers better #inflation forecasters?
After detecting a better measure of inflation expectations (https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13003), David Comerford found a reflection test question about interest predicted inflation #forecasting error over and above #math ability (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.011).
We're looking for a new #PhD student to join weecology! Come learn and work with us studying ecological forecasting and dynamics with wading birds in the Everglades.
@ecoevojobs #ecology #forecasting
#Hurricanes can cause widespread destruction, so early #forecasting of their strength is important to protect people and their homes. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (#NOAA) is using #saildrones to get better data from inside these monster #storms.
The #drones looking inside explosively intensifying hurricanes https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20231026-the-mystery-of-why-hurricanes-suddenly-intensify
