anlomedad<p><span class="h-card"><a href="https://kolektiva.social/@earthworm" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>earthworm</span></a></span> <br>Re <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> I often hear "buy us some time", and "every tenth of a degree matters". <br>Regarding the actual remaining time, I approach this from the project management perspective:<br> <br>What is the goal? <br>Preventing civilisation <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a>. <br>What are the prerequisites?<br>Cultural change toward global solidarity. <br> Which deadlines are to be kept? <br>Is defined by civilisation's vulnerabilities: A prepared and solidary culture can cushion <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/WeatherExtremes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherExtremes</span></a> from higher CO2 levels before the fabric rips apart, than an unprepared and unsolidary culture like ours today.<br>Our culture today can find its irreparable breaking point in the extremes caused from 1.5°C already. While a solidary culture and civilisation has to stay at 1.7C without overshoot to keep its harbour infrastructure intact long enough so it can slowly adapt to unavoidable <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/SeaLevelRise" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>SeaLevelRise</span></a> and avoid other nasty <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/TippingPoints" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>TippingPoints</span></a> </p><p>How big is that <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/CO2budget" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CO2budget</span></a>? <br>550Gt for 1.7C – IF culture change has occurred.<br>When must the culture change have occurred so that taking steps toward keeping in budget becomes likely? <br>The required CO2budget for the global transformation sets this deadline: my optimistic rollout plan requires 450Gt CO2 to reach CO2zero and the project requires an optimistic 1 year preparation before the actual kickoff. Little to no wriggle room is left for obstacles like on-time availability of raw materials for grid and renewables expansion. (=One reason for itemised <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/rationing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>rationing</span></a> during transformation and for systemic <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/degrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>degrowth</span></a> !)<br>So 450Gt plus 1 year preparation time = 490Gt off the 1.7C budget. 490Gt is required for saving civilisation. 490Gt of 550Gt.<br>So when exactly is the deadline for cultural change that allows the beginning of taking steps? <br>Within 60Gt from January 2023: <br>December 2024. <br>By December 2024 all or most global decision makers in media, economy, and politics must have shown that they turned toward global solidarity as foundation for all decision making. <br>If this widespread change does not occur by Dec 2024, and if our culture stays as unprepared and unsolidary, it is rather certain that civilisation implodes before 2040 from cascading fallouts of extremes on societies and human systems. <br>If said culture change occurs by 2030 but project preparation and subsequent rollout have not begun in January 2025, civilisation is still doomed, collapse occurs anyway, and likely before 2040, as well. Because keeping global stability at least for the time of the transformation project also requires <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/ClimateSafetyNet" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateSafetyNet</span></a> to be installed for every citizen – which also takes time to prepare and rollout. And while it isn't installed, civilisation is very very vulnerable, regardless of its new well-meaning culture. Preparation of the safety net beginning in 2030, and its rollout a realistic 5 years later, would be too late to sufficiently cushion early blows. Keeping global stability is then unlikely. <br>Also, by 2030, the budget for the civilisation-threshold of 1.7C wd have become too small: civilisation would have eaten up 320Gt of the remaining 550Gt. </p><p>What can we do to turn global decision makers toward global solidarity on time, ie by December 2024? If you know a film maker I can give them bullet points for a movie like "Threads" with <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/Bezos" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Bezos</span></a>, <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/Zuck" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Zuck</span></a>, <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/Sunak" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Sunak</span></a> and <a href="https://mst.mineown.de/tags/Lindner" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Lindner</span></a> in the leading roles. Lindner and Sunak die of untreated leucemia in 2035 from unmanned nuclear reactors in meltdown . Bezos and Zuck starve to death in 2036. And my bullet points for the movie explain why it came to that. </p><p>Decision-makers must see that all their money is worthless and won't save their lives in a meaningful way for long. Only if they grasp their own vulnerability on time do we have a chance to turn them toward global solidarity on time. On time for saving civilisation. A movie might do the trick. But it must show known faces, lest the mind escapes into its usual thought pattern "It magically won't hit me, only others." </p><p>Deadline: December 2024 !<br><span class="h-card"><a href="https://flipboard.social/@ScienceDesk" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>ScienceDesk</span></a></span></p>