Head·word /ˈhedˌwɜː(ɹ)d/ n. @headword

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**ˈdälfən™** @dalfen@mstdn.social · Jun 6

Jun 6

ˈdälfən™ @dalfen@mstdn.social

When you lack data due to self-imposed budget and staffing restrictions, why not estimate economic numbers—

/2 of 2

#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

The issue, Englander says, has to do with the BLS's birth-death adjustment - which estimates the net number of jobs created or destroyed by new business creations ('births') and losses from closing businesses ('deaths'). Because NFP is reported on a monthly basis, the BLS ends up largely estimating the birth-death figure based on a model. It can't directly survey openings/closures because it takes time for new businesses to actually be captured in Current Employment Statistics.
More complete data on openings/clo-sures does exist - but always with a lag.
The BLS uses the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for its revisions. But there's also the the Business Employment Dynamics (BED), which the bureau does not currently use.
Both of these - QCEW and BED - take a while to come out, much longer than the monthly cadence with which the BLS publishes its initial NFP numbers.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

And so, when the initial NFP estimate gets compared with the more comprehensive and longer-term CQEW data, you get revisions. Big ones. Based on BED data (which is more up to date than QCEW) at the moment, Englander estimates that:
"Available QCEW data extend through Q4-2024, while BED data extend only through Q3. But Q2 and Q3-2024 BED data show exceptionally weak employment gains at newly formed firms over that period. The BLS birth-death adjustment assumed that roughly 100k new jobs were being created every month by new firms minus closing firms, while BED data for Q2 and Q3-2024 showed that more jobs were lost to firms shutting down than were created by new firms. The gap during those two quarters between NFP and BED is more than 100k jobs per month on average. We suspect that this

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

on average. We suspect that this exaggerated birth-death adjustment explains some but not all of the gap."
To fix the issue, the BLS could try to survey actual closing and opening firms. But of course, that would mean additional resources - and lots of them (since you need to call up repeatedly to make sure the firms are actually closed, and not just failing to respond). Based on this week's news, it doesn't seem like the BLS is getting additional staffing anytime soon.
Maybe the US could devise a better database for tracking businesses creation/ destruction?? But again, large-scale government projects for the purposes of creating more transparency aren't exactly popular right now either.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

So in the meantime, traders, investors, economists, Social Security recipients, or just anyone who wants to know what's going on in this country, are left to grapple with whatever data they can get and make their own judgments of its accu-racy. The risk for the Fed is that it ends up having fewer and fewer reliable data sets to base its decisions on, or starts favoring certain data sets over others because of all these quality issues.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

**ˈdälfən™** @dalfen@mstdn.social · Jun 6 *

Jun 6 *

ˈdälfən™ @dalfen@mstdn.social

“…headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality.”

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#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

"We're out of time. The current commissioner announced a reduction of the sample by 5,000 households just to keep publishing the rest. Every time you reduce the sample, you lose detail," said Bill Beach, on an Odd Lotsepisode at the end of April.
Well, he was right. America's data disaster is definitely here.
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for gathering and publishing America's most important economic numbers (think things like CPI, PPI and Non-Farm-Payrolls) said it was "reducing sample in areas across the country," noting that its "current resources can no longer support the collection effort."

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

The reduction is specifically in CPI, but it's indicative of the wider trend described by Beach. It's exactly the kind of thing that Beach, a former BLS com-missioner, was worried about. Sepa-rately, the Wall Street Journal reported that economists are also starting to question the quality of US economic data, with some of them spotting some interesting quirks.
In April's CPI, for instance, UBS economist Alan Detmeister calculated that 29% of price inputs had been made using different-cell imputation, which the BLS deploys when it's unable to directly observe a particular price. Imputing figures involves estimating a number based on comparable items, which means there's an element of judgment involved.
According to Detmeister, 29% of price inputs in the April CPI report were made using imputation, a proportion which the WSJ says is almost twice as high as usual.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

Things like CPI are incredibly important.
Trillions of dollars worth of inflation-pro-tected US government bonds (TIPs) are linked to them. Social Security payouts are based on them. And the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its own "data dependency" when it comes to figuring out the path of monetary pol-icy.
But what if the data's not great?
The BLS's economic surveys have already been suffering from low response rates, which we've discussed with Beach and in this space before. That means headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality. Reduced sample sizes are only expected to create more volatility in sub-indices, according to the BLS.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

And speaking America's economic data, it is of course Jobs Day, which means we have a live example of BLS statistics to think about. While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower - a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching.
Why can't the BLS get payrolls right?
Steven Englander over at Standard Chartered (and recent Odd Lots guest) has one theory. He argues that a lack of data means the BLS has been systematically overestimating the US labor market - by a lot. He estimates that the US added only 40,000 new jobs (seasonally-adjusted) between March and December 2024, compared to the 1.4 million reported in the official NFP figures.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

**babakofi** @babakofi@union.place · May 5

May 5

babakofi @babakofi@union.place

#KshamaSawant: #Tariffs Are Not Good For The #WorkingClass (Nor is #Capitalism Itself)
"No matter what country we reside in, our enemies are the #rich, not other workers."
#uspol #usecon #economy #sawant #tarrif #workers #Obama #Biden #Trump #XiJinping #usa #china #UAW #Teamsters #recession #wealth #401k #nationalism #internationalism #layoffs
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/O4LtGYdhROs

YouTubeKshama Sawant: Tariffs Are Not Good For The Working Class (Nor is Capitalism Itself)By On Strike!

Continued thread

**ˈdälfən™** @dalfen@mstdn.social · Apr 12

Apr 12

ˈdälfən™ @dalfen@mstdn.social

Reversing capital flows is another serious concern for the #USA , as investment is shifting from American markets to international alternatives. Decreased foreign investment could stifle US economic growth.

#USA #economics #USEcon #trump

This article sums up pros and cons of a weakening dollar well , with special focus to how it will impact the agriculture sector.

https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/economic-implications-u-s-dollars-decline-economy-ag-sector

Pro Farmer · Apr 11Economic implications of the U.S. dollar’s decline for economy, ag sectorThe plunge in the U.S. dollar to the lowest since April 2022 has far-reaching implications, including good and bad impacts for agriculture.

Continued thread

**ˈdälfən™** @dalfen@mstdn.social · Apr 12 *

Apr 12 *

ˈdälfən™ @dalfen@mstdn.social

One serious concern is #stagflation — persistently increased inflation coupled with low economic growth and increased unemployment.

Though lowering the dollar’s value will be a boon for US exports, it also threatens the dollar’s place as the world’s reserve currency as it invites economic turmoil to American consumers.

#USA #economics #USEcon #trump

~ The Weaker U.S. Dollar Is MAGA's Silent Killer ~ (opinion)

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/the_weaker_us_dollar_is_magas_silent_killer_1100789.html

The Weaker U.S. Dollar Is MAGA's
Silent Killer
By Vladimir Signorelli
March 31, 2025

**Justin du Coeur** @jducoeur@social.coop · Apr 10

Apr 10

Justin du Coeur @jducoeur@social.coop

Today in “shocking but not surprising”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/09/trump-market-manipulation/

tl;dr -- it sounds like Trump violated insider-trading laws on a mass scale. (Certainly the spirit of the laws; I suspect folks will endlessly litigate the letter of them.)

Awful but politically clever, letting his fans feel like they're in on his scheming.

The Washington Post · Apr 9Trump told people to buy. Hours later, his tariff pause sent markets soaring.By Rachel Lerman

#USPol #USEcon

Replied in thread

**Heretical_i** @heretical_i@kafeneio.social · Mar 25

Mar 25

Heretical_i @heretical_i@kafeneio.social

"Stable" #bitcoin. A complete contradiction in terms... Backed by debt thats soooo 'stable' the US has paid nothing on except the interest in your lifetime, because it can't, and will never be able to pay. Nice. You HAVE TO BE an idiot.

"World Liberty Financial, a #crypto project backed by President #Trump and his family, says it will launch a new #stablecoin backed by U.S. government debt"

Via @unusual_whales #btc #cryptocurrency #scam #looting #bitcoin #usecon @useconomy

**Dan Neuman** @dan613@ottawa.place · Oct 5, 2024 *

Oct 5, 2024 *

Dan Neuman @dan613@ottawa.place

Economist Chris Clarke points out on TikTok that US housing prices went up before immigration did. It was driven far more by increased work from home. #USEcon #Economics

Screenshot of a TikTok showing a bald man wearing dark-rimmed glasses and sporting a long beard. His image is overlaid on a chart showing housing price increases per year by three different sites, and the increased immigration per year.

**Jason Perseus has moved** @JasonPerseus@mas.to · Jul 26, 2024

Jul 26, 2024

Jason Perseus has moved @JasonPerseus@mas.to

Inflation meets expectations in June at 2.5% year-over-year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/pce-inflation-june-2024-.html

#uspol #usecon #uspolitics

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