Self promotion
#bayesian
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Vor Sizilien: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" wird geborgen
Die Bergung des 56 Meter langen Segelschiffes hatte sich mehrfach verzögert. Nun ist es an der Oberfläche. Bei ihrem Untergang starben der britische Milliardär Mike Lynch und sechs weitere Insassen.
tagesschau.de · Vor Sizilien: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" wird geborgenDie Bergung des 56 Meter langen Segelschiffes hatte sich mehrfach verzögert. Nun ist es an der Oberfläche. Bei ihrem Untergang starben der britische Milliardär Mike Lynch und sechs weitere Insassen.
https://aeon.co/essays/no-schrodingers-cat-is-not-alive-and-dead-at-the-same-time
This is a pretty good article for showing how confused the interpretation of QM is. And its a good article to understand why i personally side with Bohm and Bell in thinking the pilot wave theory is the one most reasonable to believe. Because the pilot wave theory has the following quality. The theory is a mapping from initial position at time t=0 to final position at time t=1...Its deterministic, but our knowledge of the initial condition is not
#quantum #bohm #bayesian
AeonNo, Schrödinger’s cat is not alive and dead at the same time | Aeon EssaysThe weird paradox of Schrödinger’s cat has found a lasting popularity. What does it mean for the future of quantum physics?
Vorläufiger Bericht: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" sank wegen extremen Winds
Bei dem Untergang der "Bayesian" vor Sizilien kamen im vergangenen Jahr sieben Menschen ums Leben. Nun gibt ein vorläufiger Bericht Hinweise auf die Unglücksursache der Luxusjacht, die eigentlich als "unsinkbar" galt.
tagesschau.de · Vorläufiger Bericht: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" sank wegen extremen WindsBei dem Untergang der "Bayesian" vor Sizilien kamen im vergangenen Jahr sieben Menschen ums Leben. Nun gibt ein vorläufiger Bericht Hinweise auf die Unglücksursache der Luxusjacht, die eigentlich als "unsinkbar" galt.
The new #pope has a degree in #mathematics and wrote a #PhD thesis on "The role of the local prior" which I assume is a contribution to #Bayesian #statistics.
#statstab #335 Bayesian New Statistics
Thoughts: An influential paper with a great overview of different approaches to research.
#bayesian #nhst #nhbt #estimation #testing #frequentist
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.3758/s13423-016-1221-4.pdf
Die schwierige Bergung der Luxusjacht "Bayesian"
Eine riesige Luxusjacht sinkt im Mittelmeer: Das Unglück der "Bayesian", bei dem sieben Menschen starben, sorgte 2024 für Schlagzeilen und Spekulationen. Nun soll das Wrack geborgen werden, doch die Aktion verzögert sich.
tagesschau.de · Die schwierige Bergung der Luxusjacht "Bayesian"Eine riesige Luxusjacht sinkt im Mittelmeer: Das Unglück der "Bayesian", bei dem sieben Menschen starben, sorgte 2024 für Schlagzeilen und Spekulationen. Nun soll das Wrack geborgen werden, doch die Aktion verzögert sich.
Greg Cocks Observations Reveal Changing Coastal Storm Extremes Around The United States
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #extremeweather #coast #coastal #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #communities #publicsafety #climatechange #stormsurge #USA #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #damage #infrastructure #cost #economics #mitigation #insurance #sealevel #SLR #sealevelrise #Bayesian #hierarchical #framework #tideguage #tide #tidal #water #hydrology #hydrography #extremes #intensity #monitoring
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It's important to emphasize that "realistic-looking" data does *not* mean "realistic" data – especially high-dimensional data (unfortunately that post doesn't warn against this).
If one had an algorithm that generated realistic data for a given inference problem, it would mean that that inference problem had been solved. So: for educational purposes, why not. But for validation-like purposes, use with uttermost caution and at your own peril.
A #bayesian blogpost, by two of my undergraduate students! It's their report on their learning Bayesian modeling by applying it to my lab's data.
https://alexholcombe.github.io/brms_psychometric_variableGuessRate_lapseRate/DenisonBlog.html
Summary: we learned to use brms. But had trouble when we added more than one or two factors to the model. Little idea why; haven't had time to tinker much with that.
alexholcombe.github.ioBayesian analysis of psychophysical data using brms
I'm explaining Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in my grad-level stats class tomorrow, so I put together this animation illustrating HMC in one dimension. I find it very soothing.
Got the physical copies of my Cambridge element in the mail. A reminder that the whole book is free to download until the end of February: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009210171
GO GO GO! We're live next week in 40 George Square, #Edinburgh
Come and hear Isabella and Jordan talk about #Bayesian #Statistics in #RStats
Details: http://edinbr.org/edinbr/2025/02/17/February-meeting.html
edinbr.orgFebruary 2025: No likelihood? No problem! — Bayesian Statistics in RLocal <a href='https://www.meetup.com/EdinbR/'>meetups</a> and training for the R programming language
funniest accidental death poll, 2024, boosts welcome
I got an email from the author promoting this benchmark comparison of #Julialang + StanBlocks + #Enzyme vs #Stan runtimes.
StanBlocks is a macro package for Julia that mimics the structure of a Stan program. This is the first I've heard about it.
A considerable number of these models are faster in Julia than Stan, maybe even most of them.
nsiccha.github.ioStanBlocks.jl - Julia vs Stan performance comparison
Episode 120 is Live!
https://learnbayesstats.com/episodes/8f372809-3905-4110-8e1b-2f5ca1f95b33
In this LBS episode, Alexandre Andorra, Liza Semenova, and Chris Wymant explore the intersection of epidemiology, Bayesian statistics, and data science!
A #Bayesian, #DualProcessTheory inspired, multinomial approach to moral dilemmas found the
- “do no harm” impulse predicted by class, but not reflection.
- “some harm for greater good” responses predicted by reflection, not class.
New book on Bayesian inference and human cognition. I have always enjoyed material from Tom Griffiths and also from Josh Tenenbaum, and I expect this new collected chapters would also be excellent. If you want to explore more literature, the contributing authors of individual chapters are also wonderful.
mitpress.ublish.comeReadereReader
Replied in thread
"A p-value is an #estimate of p(Data | Null Hypothesis). " – not correct. A p-value is an estimate of
p(Data or other imagined data | Null Hypothesis)
so not even just of the actual data you have. Which is why p-values depend on your stopping rule (and do not satisfy the "likelihood principle"). In this regard, see Jeffreys's quote below.
Imagine you design an experiment this way: "I'll test 10 subjects, and in the meantime I apply for a grant. At the time the 10th subject is tested, I'll know my application's outcome. If the outcome is positive, I'll test 10 more subjects; if it isn't, I'll stop". Not an unrealistic situation.
With this stopping rule, your p-value will depend on the probability that you get the grant. This is not a joke.
"*What the use of P implies, therefore, is that a hypothesis that may be true may be rejected because it has not predicted observable results that have not occurred.* This seems a remarkable procedure. On the face of it the fact that such results have not occurred might more reasonably be taken as evidence for the law, not against it." – H. Jeffreys, "Theory of Probability" § VII.7.2 (emphasis in the original) <https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198503682.001.0001>.
OUP AcademicTheory of ProbabilityAbstract. Jeffreys' Theory of Probability, first published in 1939, was the first attempt to develop a fundamental theory of scientific inference based on