Most recently, and perhaps impressively,
Bloomberg/Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven #battleground state polls taken from July 24-28.
Overall, they showed Harris #leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July.
The individual state gains by Harris were also striking:
she led by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in #Arizona, a real problem state for Biden;
by two percent (47 to 45 percent) in #Nevada;
by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in #Wisconsin;
and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in #Michigan.
Harris was tied with Trump in #Georgia at 47 percent,
and trailed him by two percent (46 to 48 percent) in #North #Carolina
and by four percent (46 to 50 percent) in #Pennsylvania.
Three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for
FiveThirtyEight to compile averages,
and all of them show very close races.
In #Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent (45.9 to 44.8 percent),
but Harris leads in #Michigan by 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent)
and most surprisingly, in #Pennsylvania by 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent).
There is also significant evidence that Harris is doing better than Biden among the
#young, #Black, and #Latino voting categories on which Biden’s 2020 win depended.
In the most recent
Times-Siena poll, she leads Trump among under-30 #likely voters by 59 percent to 38 percent,
among #Black likely voters by 72 percent to 19 percent,
and among #Latino likely voters by 60 percent to 36 percent.
A new Axios–Generation Lab poll of
18 to 34-year-old voters showed
Harris expanding a six-point Biden lead (53 percent to 47 percent) to
20 points (60 percent to 40 percent).
More generally, Harris is becoming more popular than Biden. FiveThirtyEight’s favorability averages for Harris currently show her at 42.4 percent favorable/49.1 percent unfavorable, up from a 36/54 ratio a month ago, and distinctly better than Biden’s 38/54 margin when he dropped out of the race.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/harris-vs-trump-polls-kamalas-gains-are-now-a-trend.html