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#counterfactual

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Florian U. Jehn

This month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 🌍🔍📖 existentialcrunch.substack.com

Existential Crunch · Counterfactual catastrophesBy Florian U. Jehn
#counterfactual#LivingLiteratureReview#future
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Cheng Soon Ong

Theoretical analysis of #MachineLearning decision making. #Fairness viewed as #SocialWelfare should also take into account the alternative decision (called #counterfactual outcomes). This paper proposes a framework which models two kinds of actors: (1) a "principal" who is the central organisation; (2) a set of "agents" who provides the service under consideration. The social welfare goal is to design reward functions with high utility for the principal.

arxiv.org/abs/2305.14595

arXiv.orgOperationalizing Counterfactual Metrics: Incentives, Ranking, and Information AsymmetryFrom the social sciences to machine learning, it has been well documented that metrics to be optimized are not always aligned with social welfare. In healthcare, Dranove et al. [12] showed that publishing surgery mortality metrics actually harmed the welfare of sicker patients by increasing provider selection behavior. Using a principal-agent model, we directly study the incentive misalignments that arise from such average treated outcome metrics, and show that the incentives driving treatment decisions would align with maximizing total patient welfare if the metrics (i) accounted for counterfactual untreated outcomes and (ii) considered total welfare instead of average welfare among treated patients. Operationalizing this, we show how counterfactual metrics can be modified to satisfy desirable properties when used for ranking. Extending to realistic settings when the providers observe more about patients than the regulatory agencies do, we bound the decay in performance by the degree of information asymmetry between the principal and the agent. In doing so, our model connects principal-agent information asymmetry with unobserved heterogeneity in causal inference.
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Christy Dena

Hello! I'm looking for more alternate history projects (film, tv, novels, plays, games, etc). Examples: Inglorious Basterds, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood, The Man in the High Castle...

Note: not an alternate version of a fictional world, but actual world events.

I'm particularly interested in counterfactual stories that are emancipatory (so open up possibilities in a freeing way...).

Thank you!

#Writing#Screenwriting#TV
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Max Hertzberg

High time for an #introduction - hello Fediverse!

#Writer of the #CounterFactual #utopia 'East #Berlin Series' ("what if the #BerlinWall didn't fall?") and the frankly depressing Cold Island (how could it not be depressing, it's about people without a British passport and #Brexit (#migration)).

Despite the above, my most popular books are a #spy #crime series about an anti-hero #DDR #Stasi officer.

#WorkInProgress #wip: #HopePunk #Climate #Fiction #CliFi set in North #England.

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