#economists raised the probability of a #recession in the next 12 months to 45%. That’s still lower than in 2022 and 2023, when the #Fed was battling high inflation by raising interest rates, chart @wsj.com
https://www.wsj.com/economy/economists-outlook-recession-gdp-pce-unemployment-00d35eb3?mod=djemwhatsnews
Day 18 cont 
“#Labor and the Coalition (#LNP / #Liberal / #Nationals) are engaging in the most reckless election campaign in living memory, according to #economists who warn the major parties’ #policies will *inflate house prices*, damage the #budget and make the #TaxSystem worse.”
Worth reposting this observation.
A reminder this election a job interview and the winner(s) get(s) to do what they want. You pay for it.
#AusPol / #housing / #HousingEmergency <https://archive.md/LjcH0> / <https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/reckless-election-on-housing-tax-and-spending-20250411-p5lr5o> (paywall)
Day 16 cont 
“Leaders brush off warnings from #economists that duelling #housing #policies will drive up prices in #Australia”
When the #Political lass tell you their existence matters more than other Australians.
#AusPol / #Liberal / #LNP / #Nationals / #Labor / #HousingCrisis <https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/14/economists-criticise-labor-coalition-housing-policies-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-property-prices>
We should talk more about how the dominant approach of #capitalist #economists to controlling #inflation is to periodically throw hundreds of thousands of people out of #work & into misery. This is what passes for " #economic stability" & it is madness.
#Economists expect prices at gas pumps to jump approx 15 cents per gallon due to #TrumpTradeWar with #Canada while US natural gas prices to flow higher too.
#TrumpTariffs raising cost of household #energy & #construction costs as well for millions of Californians .
As Chris Giles (FT) points out, its an ill wind that blows *no* good:
'One group, however, who will be quietly excited about Trump’s tariff obsession is economists. Explaining wacky policy is great for business & will generate some wonderful data sets to argue over for years to come'!
Well, that's OK then....
Economists' jobs have gotten a whole lot more unpredictable as Donald Trump's campaign pitch and the appointments he’s made since sweeping the Nov. 5 U.S. election suggest upheaval for trade, tax, immigration and just about every other policy area imaginable. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/11/18/markets/truth-social-economists-trump/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #markets #markets #truthsocial #socialmedia #us #2024uspresidentialelection #republicans #donaldtrump #economists #economy #timcook #apple #elonmusk #tesla #china #tariffs
#JDVance Gave Us a Glimpse of Science Under a Second #Trump Term
#Vance not only took jabs at #climate #science but also scientific experts, particularly #economists.
“A lot of those same economists attack Donald Trump’s plans, and they have PhDs, but they don’t have common sense,” said Vance when questioned about Trump’s economic plans.
A hallmark of Trump administration was to sow public distrust of experts. Unfortunately, that strategy has worked well within the #GOP. https://scilight.substack.com/p/jd-vance-gave-us-a-glimpse-of-science
I was e-mailing to an #economists who used the formula log(x+y)=log(x)+log(y) in his paper, pointing out that it was wrong (should be log(xy)=log(x)+log(y)). He answered that it was not a problem, and other economists do the same. I confirm: his paper was not the first where I have seen this misuse of the logarithm.
Just to recall: that’s high-school math 
#economics
Tuesday, more than 400 independent #economists & #economic #policy experts have endorsed MVP #KamalaHarris & her vision for the #economy.
"The choice in this #election is clear: between failed trickle-down economic policies that benefit the few & economic policies that provide #opportunity for all."
#HarrisWalz2024
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/business/kamala-harris-economy-endorsement/index.html
Employers added 142k #jobs in Aug, continuing a #labor market cooling trend that stoked fears that #InterestRates have been high for too long. [damn you #JeromePowell]
The #unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.
The Aug jobs report released Fri by the Bureau of Labor Stats #BLS was among the most closely watched snapshots of the labor market since the #pandemic. #Economists had predicted 161k job gains, a boost from July’s 114k.
#economy #inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/06/august-jobs-unemployment-labor-market/
In the early the 1990’s, during his visit to Wall Street for a documentary, Robert Downey Jr. shared his thoughts on the experience. This is what he had to say:
"If money is evil, then that building is hell. This is the most obnoxious group of money-hungry, low IQ, high energy, jackrabbit, fucking wannabe big time, small time shit talking, bothersome, irritating bunch of motherfuckers I have ever had to endure for more than five minutes.”
It's as true now as it was then. And these are the people we have decided deserves to be rewarded most for their "contributions” to society.
This is a fundamental issue of fairness and generational wealth.
"Community Development Advocates of Detroit (CDAD) and The Coalition for Property Tax Justice are partnering to find retired [or active] #accountants, #economists, #appraisers, who own homes in #Detroit.
"Detroit’s property tax assessments are still systematically more than 50 percent of a property’s market value. No current Board of Review member has the skills necessary to challenge the city Assessor."
1/n
Via #LLRX AI in Banking and Finance, 8/15/24 Semi-monthly column by @bespacific Six highlights from this post: How Conversational and #GenerativeAI is shaking up the #banking industry; #IMF #AI Preparedness Index; #DeepLearning for #Economists; Crisis Amplifier? How to Prevent AI from Worsening the Next #Economic Downturn; Generative artificial intelligence #GenAI and #cybersecurity in central banking; and Financial agencies’ AI tests could get reprieve from enforcement. https://www.llrx.com/2024/08/ai-in-banking-and-finance-august-15-2015/
Does studying economics turn students "into unscrupulous calculating machines"?
In "a sample of #Polish undergraduate students of #Economics (N=408) and #Sociology (N=123) ...we observed that the choices of more advanced #economists-to-be [we]re more #deontological (grounded in norms) than #utilitarian (grounded in benefits) [suggesting] that economic education does not...."
"#economists…have been presented with new findings about the value of #socialmedia that point in a shocking direction. They suggest it is negative.
That’s right: the findings suggest social media is worth less to us than the zero we pay for it. That suggests we would be better off without it."
The signatories also praised President Joe #Biden’s record on the #economy, including a “remarkably strong & #equitable” recovery in the #labor market since the #COVID19 #pandemic.
“While each of us has different views on the particulars of various #economic policies, we all agree that #JoeBiden’s economic agenda is VASTLY SUPERIOR to Donald #Trump’s,” the #economists said.
16 #NobelPrize-winning #economists signed a letter warning the re-election of #Trump would ‘reignite’ #inflation, harm the US #economy & lead to higher #prices for #consumers.
Joseph Stiglitz & other #NobelLaureates say Trump threatens #US’s standing in the world.
In the letter released Tues, the economists said that the #Republican candidate would stoke #instability & revive high inflation w/his “fiscally irresponsible budgets”.
#BidenHarris2024
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation
♬ 
